March Ballot Results May Portend Trouble in November

The mixed results for Proposition 1, the Behavioral Health Services Program and Bond Measure, which would dramatically restructure how individuals who are unsheltered and living with mental illness can receive care through the Mental Health Services Act (MHSA) and would fund more housing and shelter, could be a warning sign for the slew of ballot initiatives anticipated in November. Days after the March 5 election, results for the ballot are too close to call, with the “yes” vote gaining less than one percentage point over “no” despite the “Yes on Prop. 1” campaign amassing nearly $21M and the “No on 1” movement raising just $1,000.

Given California’s estimated budget shortfall of $35B, the Governor and Legislature have been counting on voters approving multiple initiatives on the November ballot that include tackling deferred maintenance in schools, climate bonds, and funding for housing.

Housing-related ballot initiatives on the November ballot include:

• ACA 1, which lowers the voter threshold from two-thirds to 55% for affordable housing bond measures, the same bar required to pass bonds for school renovations.
• SCA 1, which repeals Article 34 of the CA Constitution, which requires local jurisdictions to secure voter approval of publicly funded affordable housing. Supporters contend that

AB 1657 (Wicks, D-Oakland), which is currently a two-year bill in the Legislature, may additionally place a bond on the November ballot. This bill would authorize the $10 billion Affordable Housing Bond Act of 2024 to replenish and expand the state’s affordable housing programs, including affordable rental housing for lower-income families, homeownership opportunities, and supportive housing for people experiencing homelessness.

More details will certainly become clearer as the year unfolds.